Codops, Singularitarians, Mind uploading, Science, and Science Fiction (Part 3)

Proving the Singularity is On the Horizon

I will apologize in advance that this is a long post.  Hopefully, I can make this in to a YouTube video and it will be short.

How do you prove something that has not happened?  Math appears to be a logical course of action.  However,  that can go awry like the people who were convinced the world was going to end on May 16, 2011.  Well, I went skydiving that day and I can tell you as a first-person eye-witness that as I fell to the Earth I did not see anyone ascend.  Harold Camping; however, thought that he was backed firmly by numbers and mathematics in predicting the end of the world.

Of course, we should be clear that predicting the singularity is not the same thing as predicting the end of the world.  The world you have known for your whole life is always ending moment by moment.  It has nothing to do with end of the human species.

Things will change on the day of the singularity, but only faster than they happen today.  The day of the singularity on that day will appear no different than the days before or the immediate days afterward; however, when dividing human history in to logical groupings for understanding there could well be a day that we could say, “This is the beginning of the singularity”.

The math used in this will be simple math.  The model will have flaws, but it will still enable us to make predictions – even if the specific date might be different than our predicted date – it will definitely be within the ballpark.

We will track the inflationary increases to the costs of computers in present households.

  1. Household with 1 low cost PC ($500)
  2. Household with 1 medium cost PC ($1000)
  3. Household with 1 high cost PC ($2500)
  4. Household with 1 gamer PC ($5000)
  5. Author’s household total computing costs ($13,200 – excluding high powered cell phones)
  6. Author’s household total computing costs including tablets and smart phones. ($15,644 including all mobile devices)

As inflation increases over time of about 3.5% per year – the costs a typical household that purchases these computers would increase.  While it is true that PC hardware decreases in costs by about 16% per year, we are going by what the household is willing to pay in today’s dollars and what those today’s dollars will be in the future.

For the purposes of this estimation I am not including smart phones and tablets.  This is potentially a source of error as tablet sales increase and traditional PC sales decrease; however, including the costs of tablets and smart phones could potentially throw the numbers in to a broad range of values that may not be representative of anything.

However; in order to include some trace of what the computing costs of tablets and smart phones in to the equation I have made a final group that includes the costs that the author has accumulated with his family of 6 (two adults and 4 children).

The household I live in I would consider to be middle-class.  In #5, we include only the computers.  This winds up to be $13,200 and including all of our cell phones, tablets, and our computers this goes up to $15,644.  This isn’t the costs over the course of 1 year, but the three year investment cost in computing devices.

Here is a graph of the costs of computing for the above levels with additional cost for inflation over the years from 2011 to 2080.

CostOfHomeComputingPower

 

Graph 1.

Graph 1 shows the different curves of the increasing prices of computing.  As these follow inflation, the end costs are equivalent to today’s prices.  This means that if a family of 6 spent  $15,644 over the course of two or three years on computers, mobile phones, and tablets  in 2011, this would be equivalent to $167,970 in 2080.

Ray Kurzweil uses a point in time when person computing power of $1,000 PC can afford the power to contain a human mind/simulated mind as the point for the singularity.  This is a slight misrepresentation as long before home computers can host simulated human minds drastic changes in human society will likely occur.

For example as I mentioned in Part 2, Watson was created and beat the two Jeopardy champions.  In essence, a computer of Watson’s capability can answer any question posed to it by any person – potentially in any language.  There will be a long time before artificial brains (codops) or any AI system will be available in every household that Watson level computers will be available and owned and perhaps ubiquitous in homes across the world.

Imagine, any question you have, any question your child has in school can be answered by a device in your home.  This is far beyond what the internet can do.  The internet contains data.  The internet can present data.  Data requires analysis before it becomes information.  Information is required before you can answer questions.

So, let’s add to our graph the cost of Watson’s hardware – declining as previously mentioned – at 16% per year.  Yes, it is another rough estimate.  More than the specific date when the lines intersect is the idea that these lines will intersect.  The follow up idea that long before home computer affordability of Watson level computing comes the affordability of businesses and governments of Watson level computing and problem solving.

CostHC_Increases_Costs_Watson_Decline

Graph 2.

You can see from the second graph that the inflation adjusted increasing costs of personal computing intersects with the declining costs (16% per year) of Watson’s hardware costs.

In fact if all of our assumptions are accurate (and there is a lot of room for problems) it appears that sometime in late 2036 or 2037 a middle income family that has 4 kids and lots of computers and mobile devices would be able to afford 1 Watson – if they choose not to buy any other new devices.  Based on the data below you can see that in 2036 the inflation increasing costs of the family of 6 and all their computing devices will cost $36,971 compared to the declining cost of Watson costing about: $38,380.

Now it is important to differentiate – that the inflation increasing costs for all the home computers is based on what we are willing to spend today on computers and keeping that constant.  The declining costs of Watson is based on the falling costs and increasing capabilities of computer hardware.

It is entirely possible, that the family of 6 might choose to spend less money by 16% per year on computing hardware and more on other products with their disposable income.  However, based on people’s habits, the consumption of technology leads to more spending on technology, not less, over time.  (I’ll need to support this with some data at a later point in time, so far this is just based on my personal observations).

In addition, computing takes many forms.  For example, Siri does not exist on your Apple iPhone.  Siri is a form of distributed computing where the consumer/end user does not bear the direct cost of the hardware and infrastructure, however, still benefits from Siri’s capabilities.

Continued in Part 4.

 

Base Data for Graph 1.

Year Inflation HC Low HC Medium HC High HC Gamer Author Home Computers Author Home Computers and Mobile Devices
2011 500 1000 2500 5000 13200 15644
2012 0.035 518 1035 2588 5175 13662 16192
2013 0.035 536 1071 2678 5356 14140 16758
2014 0.035 554 1109 2772 5544 14635 17345
2015 0.035 574 1148 2869 5738 15147 17952
2016 0.035 594 1188 2969 5938 15677 18580
2017 0.035 615 1229 3073 6146 16226 19230
2018 0.035 636 1272 3181 6361 16794 19904
2019 0.035 658 1317 3292 6584 17382 20600
2020 0.035 681 1363 3407 6814 17990 21321
2021 0.035 705 1411 3526 7053 18620 22067
2022 0.035 730 1460 3650 7300 19272 22840
2023 0.035 756 1511 3778 7555 19946 23639
2024 0.035 782 1564 3910 7820 20644 24467
2025 0.035 809 1619 4047 8093 21367 25323
2026 0.035 838 1675 4188 8377 22115 26209
2027 0.035 867 1734 4335 8670 22889 27126
2028 0.035 897 1795 4487 8973 23690 28076
2029 0.035 929 1857 4644 9287 24519 29059
2030 0.035 961 1923 4806 9613 25377 30076
2031 0.035 995 1990 4974 9949 26265 31128
2032 0.035 1030 2059 5149 10297 27184 32218
2033 0.035 1066 2132 5329 10658 28136 33345
2034 0.035 1103 2206 5515 11031 29121 34512
2035 0.035 1142 2283 5708 11417 30140 35720
2036 0.035 1182 2363 5908 11816 31195 36971
2037 0.035 1223 2446 6115 12230 32287 38265
2038 0.035 1266 2532 6329 12658 33417 39604
2039 0.035 1310 2620 6550 13101 34586 40990
2040 0.035 1356 2712 6780 13559 35797 42425
2041 0.035 1403 2807 7017 14034 37050 43909
2042 0.035 1453 2905 7263 14525 38346 45446
2043 0.035 1503 3007 7517 15034 39689 47037
2044 0.035 1556 3112 7780 15560 41078 48683
2045 0.035 1610 3221 8052 16104 42515 50387
2046 0.035 1667 3334 8334 16668 44003 52151
2047 0.035 1725 3450 8626 17251 45544 53976
2048 0.035 1786 3571 8928 17855 47138 55865
2049 0.035 1848 3696 9240 18480 48787 57820
2050 0.035 1913 3825 9563 19127 50495 59844
2051 0.035 1980 3959 9898 19796 52262 61939
2052 0.035 2049 4098 10245 20489 54091 64107
2053 0.035 2121 4241 10603 21206 55985 66350
2054 0.035 2195 4390 10974 21949 57944 68672
2055 0.035 2272 4543 11358 22717 59972 71076
2056 0.035 2351 4702 11756 23512 62071 73564
2057 0.035 2433 4867 12167 24335 64244 76138
2058 0.035 2519 5037 12593 25186 66492 78803
2059 0.035 2607 5214 13034 26068 68819 81561
2060 0.035 2698 5396 13490 26980 71228 84416
2061 0.035 2792 5585 13962 27925 73721 87371
2062 0.035 2890 5780 14451 28902 76301 90429
2063 0.035 2991 5983 14957 29914 78972 93594
2064 0.035 3096 6192 15480 30961 81736 96869
2065 0.035 3204 6409 16022 32044 84597 100260
2066 0.035 3317 6633 16583 33166 87557 103769
2067 0.035 3433 6865 17163 34327 90622 107401
2068 0.035 3553 7106 17764 35528 93794 111160
2069 0.035 3677 7354 18386 36771 97077 115050
2070 0.035 3806 7612 19029 38058 100474 119077
2071 0.035 3939 7878 19695 39390 103991 123245
2072 0.035 4077 8154 20385 40769 107630 127558
2073 0.035 4220 8439 21098 42196 111398 132023
2074 0.035 4367 8735 21836 43673 115296 136644
2075 0.035 4520 9040 22601 45201 119332 141426
2076 0.035 4678 9357 23392 46784 123508 146376
2077 0.035 4842 9684 24210 48421 127831 151499
2078 0.035 5012 10023 25058 50116 132305 156802
2079 0.035 5187 10374 25935 51870 136936 162290
2080 0.035 5369 10737 26843 53685 141729 167970

Data for Graph 2 (additional column for data in Graph 1) – these are the initial cost of Watson (3 million as indicated on Wikipedia) declining by 16% per year.

Year Watson Cost
2011 3000000
2012 2520000
2013 2116800
2014 1778112
2015 1493614
2016 1254636
2017 1053894
2018 885271
2019 743628
2020 624647
2021 524704
2022 440751
2023 370231
2024 310994
2025 261235
2026 219437
2027 184327
2028 154835
2029 130061
2030 109252
2031 91771
2032 77088
2033 64754
2034 54393
2035 45690
2036 38380
2037 32239
2038 27081
2039 22748
2040 19108
2041 16051
2042 13483
2043 11326
2044 9513
2045 7991
2046 6713
2047 5639
2048 4736
2049 3979
2050 3342
2051 2807
2052 2358
2053 1981
2054 1664
2055 1398
2056 1174
2057 986
2058 828
2059 696
2060 585
2061 491
2062 412
2063 346
2064 291
2065 244
2066 205
2067 172
2068 145
2069 122
2070 102
2071 86
2072 72
2073 61
2074 51
2075 43
2076 36
2077 30
2078 25
2079 21
2080 18

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