If you think the economic disparities of the present are bad – it is looking worse for the future.
As I have discussed in postings – there is going to be a lot of technologically induced unemployment over the next two decades. Similar to families that made it through the Great Depression with fund and properties, people who continue to work and earn money and maintain ownership of major assets will be in a great position at around the year 2040.
Those of us that are not in good financial status will have worse problems.
I’m going to re-use one of my graphs to illustrate this point.
The first line starting from the lower left and curving upward is the line of the inflation corrected costs of a family of 6 with a computer per person (of varying styles and costs), smart phones for 3 members of the family (iPhone 5s, Samsung Note 3) and many tablets with a starting cost (absorbed over 3 years) of over $15,000.
There is a yellow line representing a gamer’s PC cost corrected for inflation over time – and you can see that there is a significant space between these two lines. Barely visible on this graph is the “High Cost PC” – such as $2500 for an iMac – that half of my family prefers. The low cost PC and Medium cost PC lines do not even show up on this graph.
A codop (computerized doppelganger) is something that can be created once we have the functions of the human brain mapped to the point that we can simulate them and the ability to copy/read human minds and put those minds in the simulation – a computerized copy of yourself.
Watson, created by IBM is a system that can basically answer any question you might have – about just about anything – as it soundly trounced two Jeopardy! champions as proof.
What we find is that families that have money for computers (in whatever form) will get Watson level computers in 2036 (approximately). Sometime after 2040 everyone else is able to get such powerful machines. During those 4 or 5 years those with the financial resources to own a person Watson will have a significant advantage. Some will get huge advantages and make new things that they could never have done without a Watson machine. Others might benefit only in being sure of the correct answer whenever they have a question and that will give some benefit. Benefit at home – and benefit at work. Other poorer families will never get a Watson level computer – and will be Left Behind.
The big deal though is the codop. Our middle income family gets a codop at around 2055. Make no mistake of how much value a codop will be to a family. Consider that a family has a major wage earner that works with their mind – in whatever industry. They could be project managers, business analysts, scientists, researchers, engineers, just about anything you can do without actually physically touching something. You take all your computer expenses and you put them on hold for a year and you purchase a codop. Then, instead of 1 primary wage earner – you have two. A project manager that is running literally 16 hours a day, sometimes with the inhu (individual human that was copied) and sometimes with the codop. You can have endless research with handshakes once a day. The earnings of families with codops will double. The earnings and disposable income of families that do not have codops will remain flat.
That is a major economic advantage. Don’t forget, that in addition to having a codop, these families will already have at least one Watson level computer – available to the entire family including the codop.
There will be the commercially rich, and the new technology based rich (with their codops and Watsons), and then there will be a huge amount of poor. Poor, because they have become technologically disadvantaged.
Our view of the poor, how we take care of them, how they live – will need to be reviewed as the huge numbers of technologically displaced workers will need to be helped. Economics – at least personal and microeconomics of the family, will have to change, and change dramatically.
The rich, well, they will have many codops. Codops not only of themselves, but of their best workers – paid to help them – why settle for one best financial analyst, when you can have 3 working 24 hours a day handshaking with each other and finding ways to maximize making even more money?